World Cup 2026 underdogs are stealing the show, and England have already felt it. Cape Verde (64th), Curacao (81st), Ghana (65th) and South Africa (54th) have taken points off Spain, Ecuador, England and South Korea. With 48 teams, the expanded format has levelled the field — and Ghana’s draw with the Three Lions proved no favourite is safe. Luck or clever execution? The numbers are clear: these sides aren’t winning by chance, they’re winning by plan.
Why underdogs are taking points off the favourites in 2026
Underdogs are thriving because they defend in a low block and punish every transition. Cape Verde held Spain (ranked 3rd) to a 0-0 draw, with goalkeeper Vozinha named man of the match. The pattern repeats: compact defensive shape, tight lines, and a sharp counter the moment they win the ball back.
The 48-team format creates more lopsided fixtures on paper but shrinks the margin for error for favourites. A single slip can complicate qualification. Lower-ranked nations know this and treat these games like finals, with an intensity the bigger teams don’t always match.
What it means for Tuchel’s England
For England the message is blunt: no game is won before kick-off. Ghana already showed that points can be taken off the Three Lions, and in Group L against Croatia and others, England will face sides happy to sit deep and hit on the break — exactly the script that has tripped up the favourites.
The key for Thomas Tuchel will be patience and quality in breaking down a low block. Cracking a packed defence demands quick ball circulation, runs in behind and shots from distance. Stars like Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham must find space where almost none exists, with more movement and late arrivals into the box.
Luck or planning: what the numbers reveal
A closer look at the upset matches reveals common patterns, not random luck: a compact defensive block, pressing triggered at the right moment, and ruthless efficiency from rare chances. These teams concede possession but limit shots on target, then convert their counters.
It is planning, not a lottery. Video preparation, a committed defensive game plan and collective discipline explain the results. The lesson applies to every World Cup 2026 favourite: underestimate an underdog and you hand them the perfect stage for an upset.
FAQ
Which underdogs have surprised at World Cup 2026?
Cape Verde (64th) held Spain, Curacao (81st) drew with Ecuador, Ghana (65th) took points off England, and South Africa (54th) stunned South Korea.
Why did England drop points to Ghana?
Ghana defended in a disciplined low block and countered quickly, limiting England’s clear chances and capitalising on transitions.
Does the 48-team format help underdogs?
Yes. More fixtures and a smaller margin for error for favourites increase the chances of upsets from lower-ranked nations.
Is it luck or planning behind the upsets?
It is tactical planning: a compact block, fast counter-attacks and collective discipline, not a stroke of luck.
How can England beat a deep defensive block?
With quick ball circulation, runs in behind, long-range shots and quality crosses to stretch the opposition and create space.
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