Brazil vs Morocco (23:00 BST): Ancelotti’s depleted side face their toughest Group C test

Brazil enter their 2026 World Cup campaign without three key players — Neymar (calf), Rodrygo and Militão — while Morocco arrive ranked seventh in the world and quietly confident. Friday night at MetLife Stadium, New Jersey, 23:00 BST, promises rather more intrigue than a straightforward five-time champions walkover.

Brazil without Neymar: Ancelotti’s tactical reshuffle

The absence of Neymar is more than the loss of a name. It is the loss of Brazil’s most inventive creator, the player capable of producing a moment of magic from nothing — and, perhaps more critically, the psychological anchor around whom Brazilian football has organised itself for more than a decade. Carlo Ancelotti, taking charge of his first World Cup as a national team manager, must construct a Brazil team that does not depend on that magic.

Rodrygo’s absence is similarly significant. The Real Madrid forward was expected to operate alongside Vinícius Jr in a devastating attacking partnership; instead, Ancelotti must find alternatives. Militão’s loss at centre-back — another Real Madrid player, the kind of commanding presence who gives a defence its shape and authority — complicates matters further.

What remains is still formidable. Vinícius Jr, released from domestic club pressure and playing in the tournament environment that historically suits the very best attackers, will be Brazil’s primary threat. His directness, his willingness to run in behind, and his finishing in tight spaces make him one of the most dangerous forwards in world football when his confidence is high and the space is there. Raphinha will operate alongside him, offering a different profile: technically precise, capable of dropping deep to receive, and increasingly effective in front of goal since his move to Barcelona.

Ancelotti’s challenge is to construct a midfield capable of protecting a makeshift defence while simultaneously supporting those two. The manager who made his name building pragmatic European champions with AC Milan, Chelsea and Real Madrid has rarely had to manage quite this much uncertainty in the opening game of a major tournament. His adaptability, though, is his greatest coaching quality.

Morocco: the world’s 7th-ranked side deserve far more than underdog status

It is worth pausing on that ranking. Morocco, seventh in the world. Not seventh in Africa. Not seventh outside Europe. Seventh globally. And yet the framing around this match will inevitably cast them as the side facing the five-time world champions — the team that needs to pull off a result.

Morocco’s semi-final run at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar announced them to the world. What has happened since is that they have consolidated that achievement, building on it rather than treating it as a high-water mark. Their defensive organisation under their current regime is exceptional — opponents consistently struggle to break through a compact, well-drilled back line that concedes on its own terms, not the opposition’s.

Achraf Hakimi, the Paris Saint-Germain right-back, is the embodiment of that transformation. His ability to defend with discipline and then burst forward with devastating effect — crossing, running in behind, arriving late at the far post — creates a dimension that Brazil’s left side will have to manage carefully throughout the entire ninety minutes. Hakimi’s performances at club and international level place him among the best full-backs in world football. If he is allowed the freedom he enjoys at PSG, Morocco will create chances.

The tactical duel: Brazil’s attack versus Morocco’s defensive structure

The central question of this match is whether Ancelotti can find the combination to unlock Morocco’s defensive organisation without the players he had planned to use. Morocco’s system is predicated on the idea that opponents struggle to create genuine goalscoring opportunities against them; their counter-attacking transitions, often through Hakimi on the right and the energy of their midfielders, provide the threat going forward.

Brazil’s typical answer to a disciplined low block is to circulate possession patiently, waiting for a moment of individual brilliance — historically often Neymar or Vinícius — to create an opening. With Neymar absent, that burden falls more completely on Vinícius. Morocco’s defensive tracking and their collective compactness could neutralise him if he is left too isolated, without the supporting runs that Rodrygo would have provided.

The tactical question for Ancelotti is whether to use the ball wide more aggressively, stretching Morocco’s defence laterally before playing through the lines, or whether to build more centrally and rely on the quality of Vinícius and Raphinha to manufacture something. Morocco, meanwhile, will be disciplined and patient — looking for the turnover and the rapid counter-attacking transition that is their hallmark.

Group C prediction: can Morocco pull off a famous result?

Group C is arguably the most demanding group of the tournament. Brazil, Morocco, Scotland and Haiti. An opening loss for Brazil would create immediate pressure in a group where no team has a straightforward path to the knockout stages — and where every match carries enormous weight.

Morocco 2-1 Brazil is not simply a romantic possibility. It is a genuine tactical probability if Morocco’s defensive system holds for long periods and they convert one or two of the counter-attacking chances that Brazil’s re-organised defence may concede. Brazil’s absences have opened vulnerabilities that Morocco are precisely the kind of team to identify and exploit.

That said, Brazil still carry sufficient quality — Vinícius, Raphinha, a deep bench with Champions League-level talent — to be considered narrow favourites. But only narrowly. This is one of the most genuinely competitive opening matches of the tournament, and anyone expecting an easy evening for the Seleção should look again at Morocco’s ranking.

🏆 Prediction: Morocco 2-1 Brazil — the most likely upset of the opening round.