Strong favourites or a tougher task? Why defending the title is Arsenal’s real test

Arsenal ended a very long wait by winning the Premier League last season, finishing seven points clear of Manchester City. It means they begin this campaign as defending champions for the first time since 2004-05 — a status nobody in the current squad has experienced in this shirt. The Gunners are favourites to lift the trophy again, but the history of title defences in England is far less generous than the bookmakers’ odds suggest.

Why Arsenal are favourites

Arsenal are favourites because a seven-point winning margin over Manchester City is not an accident across 38 games. Champions who win by that distance usually keep their squad, their hierarchy and their patterns intact, and those three things are the foundation of every successful title defence.

The second reason is continuity. Mikel Arteta has been in charge for several seasons and has built a side around defensive control rather than a one-off scoring surge. Teams built that way tend to age better than teams carried by a striker having the season of his life.

The caveat is the one nobody at the club can coach away. Arsenal have not started a season as champions since 2004-05. Defending is a different psychological job from chasing, and this squad has no collective experience of it in Arsenal colours.

What history says about defending champions

The blunt answer is that retaining the Premier League is hard but not rare — and almost every successful defence has come from a squad that had already done it before. Manchester City under Pep Guardiola turned the process into a routine, which is precisely why Guardiola’s side remains the benchmark rather than a fading threat.

Failed defences rarely involve a collapse. They involve a champion drawing at home to mid-table sides in December, dropping two points in a Tuesday night fixture, and looking up in March to find the gap has quietly turned into a deficit. Consistency, not brilliance, is what separates one title from two.

There is also the psychological shift that comes with the trophy. Every away trip becomes the opponent’s biggest game of the season. Champions face a version of the league that nobody else does, and it lasts all 38 matches.

Where the title will actually be won and lost

The decisive stretch is the winter block. Between early December and the end of January the fixtures come every three or four days, injuries accumulate, and squad depth stops being a talking point and starts being the whole story. Arsenal’s bench will be scrutinised harder than their first eleven.

The second pressure point is the defensive spine. Arteta’s system depends on a high line and compact spacing, which only works when the first-choice centre-backs are available. Long absences there force the whole team to sit deeper and change how Arsenal generate control.

The third is Europe. A deep Champions League run drains legs and breaks up the weekly training rhythm, while an early exit dents confidence. Teams that have gone back-to-back in England have almost always been clear-headed about which competitions to prioritise.

The challengers lining up

Manchester City are the primary threat for one specific reason: they have solved this problem repeatedly. Retaining a Premier League title is a skill their organisation has already demonstrated, and Arsenal have yet to prove they possess it. Last season’s seven-point margin guarantees nothing about this one.

Liverpool and Chelsea complete the realistic group of challengers, both with squads deep enough to absorb injuries across a congested calendar. Any of them punishing Arsenal in a head-to-head is less damaging than any of them quietly stringing together winter results while Arsenal drop points elsewhere.

There is also the transfer variable. Squads across the top of the league were linked with significant additions over the summer, but until a club officially confirms a deal, those names are best treated as reported interest rather than settled business.

The verdict: favourites, with genuine doubt attached

Arsenal are legitimate favourites without being overwhelming ones. They have the league’s most reliable defensive base, an established manager and a core group entering its peak years — the classic ingredients of consecutive titles.

The main risk is physical rather than tactical. A long-term injury to a first-choice centre-back or a key midfielder would change the nature of the team, and Arsenal have historically struggled when they lose players from that central spine.

The honest verdict arrives in late February. If Arsenal are still in the top two by then with a broadly intact squad, back-to-back titles become very credible. If not, 2004-05 will remain the last time the Gunners started a season wearing the crown.

FAQ