The 48-team World Cup 2026 format has already exposed its biggest flaw: a group stage that lacks real jeopardy. According to BBC football issues correspondent Dale Johnson, two final-round group games would let two teams simply play out a draw to qualify together. For England, one of the tournament favourites, that loophole acts as a safety net — but it also hides a trap Thomas Tuchel will want to avoid.
Why the 48-team format strips out the jeopardy
The 48-team format lowers the risk of group-stage elimination because the eight best third-placed teams also advance to the last 32. It takes 72 games to cut the field from 48 down to 32, which means a single defeat almost never knocks out a major nation.
The example cited by the BBC is striking: South Korea lost 1-0 to South Africa, yet remain strong favourites to progress. With three points and a goal difference of -1, a third-placed finish is probably enough. Under the old 32-team format from 2022, that same defeat would likely have meant elimination.
What it means for Tuchel’s England
For England, the flaw in the 48-team format offers an unprecedented margin for error. Even if the Three Lions slip up in their group, they are unlikely to suffer an early exit — the kind of disaster that has haunted past campaigns. A poor result no longer instantly turns into a national crisis.
But that security cuts both ways. A team that feels qualified before it is can drop its intensity, and that is exactly when upsets happen. The real question is not whether England escape the group, but in what rhythm and form they arrive in the knockout rounds, where the trophy is actually won.
Can two teams really agree on a draw?
Yes. In the final round of group games, two teams who already know the other groups’ results can work out that a draw is enough to send both through. The scenario echoes the infamous ‘Disgrace of Gijón’ between West Germany and Austria in 1982.
To limit the risk, FIFA schedules the final group games to kick off at the same time. But with the best third-placed teams being rescued, the maths becomes even more complex — and the incentive to play it safe even stronger. That is precisely the ethical flaw the BBC has highlighted in the new format.
FAQ
How many teams are in the 2026 World Cup?
The 2026 World Cup features 48 teams split into 12 groups of four, up from 32 in previous editions. It is the largest tournament in the competition’s history, co-hosted by the United States, Mexico and Canada.
How does qualification work at the 2026 World Cup?
The top two from each of the 12 groups advance automatically, along with the eight best third-placed teams. In total, 32 teams reach the knockout phase, which begins at the last 32 (round of 32).
Can England qualify by finishing third in their group?
Yes. Under the 48-team format, even a third-place finish can take England through if their record ranks among the eight best third-placed teams, which sharply reduces the risk of an early exit.
Why do people say the 48-team format lacks jeopardy?
Because with eight third-placed teams being rescued, a defeat rarely eliminates a favourite. A team can even progress with a negative goal difference, which lowers the tension in the group stage.
Can two teams agree on a draw to qualify?
Mathematically, yes. In the final round, two teams may realise a draw sends both through. FIFA schedules the last group games simultaneously to prevent this, but the loophole still exists in the new format.
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