England vs Croatia: World Cup 2026 Group L opener preview — can Tuchel finally exorcise the 2018 ghosts?

The warm-ups are done. England’s first real test of the 2026 World Cup is Croatia, June 15. It’s a fixture loaded with history: the 2018 World Cup semi-final, lost 2-1 after leading at half-time. The 2020 Euros opener, won 1-0 through a Saka goal that started a new chapter. Now it’s Group L, World Cup 2026, and England need to prove they’ve changed.

Under Thomas Tuchel, England look structurally different from the Southgate era. More aggressive pressing, cleaner build-up from the back, a willingness to control possession rather than soak up pressure and counter. The Croatia match is the first chance to show whether those changes hold up under tournament conditions.

Croatia in 2026: past their peak, still dangerous

Luka Modrić is 40 years old. He’s still in the squad, still capable of moments of genius, but he’s no longer the engine that drove Croatia to back-to-back semi-finals and a final. The generation that shocked the world in 2018 is fading.

What Croatia still have: organisation, experience, and the ability to make a game ugly if they need to. Joško Gvardiol (Manchester City) has emerged as a world-class defender and a genuine threat from set pieces. Mateo Kovačić (Manchester City) still has quality in midfield. This is a Croatia team that knows how to grind results.

Their attacking options are thinner. Without Modrić at full power, the creative burden falls on Lovro Majer and the increasingly reliable Marko Pjaca. England’s defensive line should be able to manage this — but Croatia will be compact, disciplined, and looking for a set piece or a moment of England carelessness.

Tuchel’s England: the key tactical questions

Tuchel confirmed his starting lineup for the Costa Rica warm-up, with the Arsenal quartet — Saka, Rice, White, Raya — all featuring. This gives us a clear picture of how England will line up: 4-2-3-1, Rice and a partner in a double pivot, Bellingham in the No.10 role, Saka on the right, and Kane as the focal point.

The tactical question for Croatia is: how do you stop Bellingham? He’s at his most dangerous arriving late from deep, arriving into spaces the opponent’s midfielders have vacated. Croatia will either man-mark him — leaving space for Saka and the full-backs — or try to drop deep and concede possession. Neither option is comfortable.

The 2018 ghost: will it matter?

England led Croatia 1-0 at half-time in the 2018 semi-final, then lost 2-1 to a Modrić-inspired second half. That squad, that Southgate approach, the low block that invited pressure — all of it is gone now. England’s players in 2026 are different people with different experiences.

Kane scored in that 2018 game. He’s back, older, technically sharper, no longer relying on pure pace. Bellingham wasn’t even in international football then. Saka was 16. The ghosts of 2018 exist only if England choose to be haunted by them. Tuchel’s job is to make sure they don’t.

Prediction: England’s Group L opener

England should win this, and probably will. Croatia’s decline is real, Tuchel’s structural improvements are visible, and the home atmosphere (wherever the match is played) should favour an England team with genuine belief. The risks are complacency and an early Croatia set-piece goal that disrupts England’s rhythm. If England stay switched on from the first whistle, Group L opens with a statement.

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