2026 World Cup predictions: who will win the trophy? Spain, France or England?

The 2026 World Cup kicks off in five days. Forty-eight teams. Seven matches to win the trophy. So who actually lifts it in New Jersey on July 19? Spain are the clear favourite at the bookmakers, followed by France, Brazil, Germany and Argentina. But the history of this tournament is a history of surprises — 2002 Senegal, 2010 Spain, 2022 Morocco. Predictions exist to be broken.

Here’s the honest breakdown of who has a genuine chance — and what England fans should realistically expect.

Spain: the team to beat

Spain are the most complete team at this World Cup. They won Euro 2024 convincingly with a system built around pressing intensity, short combinations and relentless positional play. Lamine Yamal, 18 years old and already one of the most dangerous wide players on the planet. Pedri pulling strings in midfield. Morata or Joselu as the focal point. And a defensive unit that gives very little away.

The only question mark: can they replicate Euro form in a 48-team tournament where the path to the final is longer and the margin for error is smaller? Every big team has at least one concern — Spain’s is fitness depth over seven matches.

France, Brazil, Germany: the chasing pack

France lost 1-2 to Ivory Coast in their final warm-up, and Hugo Ekitike is out for the tournament. But this is still the squad with Mbappe, Griezmann, Tchouameni and Camavinga — enough quality to win from any position. They face Senegal on June 16 in their Group I opener, which is already being called the most dangerous first match of the group stage.

Brazil are dealing with Neymar’s calf injury — an MRI is deciding whether he plays at all. Even without him, Ancelotti has Vinicius Jr., Endrick and Raphinha. But with Neymar at 100%, Brazil play a different kind of football: unpredictable, creative, terrifying. Opener: June 13 vs Morocco.

Germany lost teenage midfielder Lennart Karl to injury in training, but Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala make them one of the most exciting attacking teams in the tournament. They want to win on home soil for the first time since… well, they’ve never won a World Cup on foreign soil in the Americas. They’re overdue.

Can England win it?

Yes. But let’s be precise about what that means. England have the squad depth to go deep in a 48-team tournament. Tuchel has imposed structure and defensive discipline that Southgate sometimes lacked. Harry Kane is the most reliable goalscorer in this England generation. Jude Bellingham adds the X-factor that can change a match in one moment.

The challenge is the semi-final and beyond. Spain, France, Brazil — England will face one of them to win the trophy. Can this squad step up in that moment? Euro 2024 said no. But this is a new setup, a new coach, and England haven’t won a major tournament since 1966. That pressure either breaks you or defines you.

The dark horses: Germany, Argentina and Portugal

Argentina are the defending champions. Messi is playing his final World Cup. That combination of experience and desperation makes them dangerous regardless of the injury concerns. Portugal around Ronaldo and Bruno Fernandes have enough to reach the latter stages. Germany on home continent (loosely) with Wirtz running the show could be the tournament revelation.

Our prediction: Spain win the 2026 World Cup. France are the biggest threat in the final. England reach the quarter-finals or semi-finals — and whether they go beyond that will define Tuchel’s entire reign.

Frequently Asked Questions

FAQ