Ivan Toney being on the plane to North America is the call that tells you everything about how Thomas Tuchel intends to win a World Cup: with goals, not reputations. My view is simple. This is a smart, cold-blooded selection. Toney is not in the squad to dazzle, to drop deep, or to win a popularity contest in the press. He is there because he scored 32 goals in 32 Saudi Pro League games for Al-Ahli, because he buries penalties under pressure, and because if Harry Kane limps off in a knockout tie, England need a man who can lead the line without the team losing a single yard of its shape. Tuchel left out Cole Palmer, Phil Foden, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Harry Maguire to make room for that kind of certainty. You can argue with the romance of it. You cannot argue with the logic.
THE QUICK VERSION
Ivan Toney earns a shock England recall after 32 goals in 32 games for Al-Ahli, despite barely featuring since Euro 2024. Tuchel wants a like-for-like deputy to Harry Kane, and Toney — a penalty specialist who holds the ball up and threatens in the air — fits the brief better than a more glamorous name would. He is almost certainly an impact substitute and emergency starter, not a guaranteed XI player. The cost is brutal: Palmer, Foden, Alexander-Arnold and Maguire all miss out. England open Group L against Croatia on Wed 17 June, 21:00 UK time. England are roughly third favourites to win the tournament at around 6.50–7.50 decimal, varies by bookmaker.
Ivan Toney at the 2026 World Cup: the key facts
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Player | Ivan Toney, striker |
| Club (2025–26) | Al-Ahli (Saudi Pro League) |
| Season output | 32 goals in 32 league games (reported) |
| England role | Deputy to Harry Kane; penalty option |
| Head coach | Thomas Tuchel |
| Group | L — with Croatia, Ghana, Panama |
| England opener | England v Croatia, Wed 17 Jun, 21:00 UK time |
| Tournament odds (England) | ~6.50–7.50 decimal, varies by bookmaker |
Why did Tuchel recall Ivan Toney?
Strip away the noise and the recall comes down to one number that no other available English striker can match: 32 goals in 32 league games. That is not a hot run; that is a full season of relentless finishing. Tuchel has been blunt since taking the England job in 2024 that he picks on output and on fit, not on profile, and Toney is the purest expression of that policy in the entire 26-man squad. Yes, the goals came in the Saudi Pro League rather than the Premier League or Champions League, and that earns a fair caveat about the level of opposition. But Tuchel is not asking Toney to be his best player. He is asking him to be a guaranteed source of goals when the captain needs a rest or picks up a knock, and on that narrow, specific job, the case is very strong.
It helps that Toney offers something the rest of the forward line does not. He is a genuine, old-fashioned No.9 who holds the ball up, brings runners into play, and attacks crosses. Crucially, he is one of the most reliable penalty takers in the squad outside Kane himself — and at a World Cup that can be decided on spot-kicks in a quarter-final, a striker you trust from twelve yards is worth more than a flashy name who would never step up. That blend of physicality, aerial threat and penalty nerve is exactly why Tuchel was willing to absorb the criticism that came with the pick.
EDITOR’S TAKE
I have watched enough tournament football to know that the squad places people obsess over in June are rarely the ones that decide anything in July. What decides knockout ties is who is dependable when the game is ugly, the legs are gone, and someone has to win a header or stand over a penalty in front of 70,000 people. That is the exact profile Toney brings, and it is why I am relaxed about a pick that has half the country shouting. I would not start him over Kane in a month of Sundays — but as the man you throw on at 1-1 with twenty minutes left, give me the proven penalty-taker who scored 32 last season every single time.
Can Ivan Toney really back up Harry Kane?
Yes — and that is precisely the point of the selection. Kane remains England’s captain and talisman, a man who scored 61 goals in all competitions for Bayern Munich this season and takes the penalties, so nobody is suggesting Toney displaces him. The genius of the pick is that Toney is so similar in profile that England barely have to change anything when he comes on. Both are physical, both hold up play, both are deadly from the spot. Tuchel can swap one for the other in the 70th minute without redrawing the tactical map, which is exactly what you want from a deputy.
Contrast that with the alternative. Ollie Watkins, also recalled after a strong run of form for Aston Villa, gives Tuchel a different flavour entirely — pace in behind, runs across the last defender, a threat on the counter. So England now carry two contrasting back-up strikers behind the captain: Toney as the like-for-like hold-up option and penalty taker, Watkins as the runner who stretches tired defences late on. That is genuine tactical flexibility, and it is the strongest argument that this forward line is better balanced than the headlines about who got left out would suggest.
How England’s striker options compare
| Striker | Profile | Likely role |
|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane (captain) | Complete No.9, drops deep, penalty taker | Guaranteed starter |
| Ivan Toney | Physical hold-up play, aerial threat, penalties | Like-for-like deputy / impact sub |
| Ollie Watkins | Pace in behind, runs the channels | Counter-attacking change late on |
Who did Toney keep out of England’s squad?
Toney’s recall does not exist in a vacuum — it came in one of the most ruthless England squads in living memory, and that is the real story here. Tuchel made a series of cold calls that left genuine match-winners watching from home. The most eye-catching omissions:
- Cole Palmer — left out after a difficult, stop-start season at Chelsea.
- Phil Foden — out of his best form during a frustrating campaign at Manchester City.
- Trent Alexander-Arnold — a surprise defensive omission that sparked plenty of debate.
- Harry Maguire — reported to be “shocked and gutted” to miss the cut.
Read those four names back and you understand exactly what Tuchel is doing. He is choosing reliability, fit and form over reputation, even when the reputation is enormous. Whether that is brave or reckless is the debate that will rage right up until kick-off — and, fairly, right through England’s campaign if the creative spark some of those omitted players provide is missed. But it is consistent. Toney is in the squad for the same reason Palmer and Foden are not: this manager picks on what you have done lately, not on what your name is worth.
EDITOR’S TAKE
The Palmer and Foden calls will define how this squad is judged. If England’s attack looks blunt against a low block — and Croatia, Ghana and Panama will all be tempted to sit deep — you can bet the punditry will circle straight back to the creators left at home. That is the genuine risk in a squad built around proven finishers rather than chaos-makers. But I would rather go into a World Cup with too many people who can score the ugly, decisive goal than too many who can only score the beautiful one. Toney scores the ugly ones. In July, that matters more than it does in June.
What role will Ivan Toney play at the World Cup?
Be realistic about this: Toney is almost certainly an impact substitute and emergency starter, not a nailed-on member of the first XI. Kane starts when fit, full stop. Toney’s value is concentrated in three specific scenarios, and they are exactly the moments that win and lose tournaments. First, as the man Tuchel throws on when England are chasing a goal and need a focal point to attack crosses. Second, as cover if Kane is rested in a dead-rubber final group game or rotated to manage minutes across a long tournament. Third — and most importantly — as the senior striker England can trust if Kane is injured in a knockout round and they suddenly need a No.9 who can lead the line in a quarter or semi-final without the team losing its identity.
That is a meaningful role even if his total minutes end up modest. World Cups are not won by the eleven names on the opening teamsheet; they are won by the depth that holds up when injuries, suspensions and fatigue bite in the second and third week. On that measure, having a striker who scored 32 last season sitting on the bench as your fourth-choice insurance policy is the kind of luxury most nations would love. The headline says “shock recall”. The reality is “sensible insurance”.
England’s Group L opening fixtures (UK time)
| Fixture | Date | UK kick-off (BST) |
|---|---|---|
| England v Croatia | Wed 17 Jun | 21:00 |
| Ghana v Panama | Thu 18 Jun | 00:00 |
The betting and viewing angle
From a pure markets standpoint, England sit as roughly the third favourites to win the whole thing at around 6.50–7.50 decimal, behind Spain (~4.50–5.50) and France (~4.80–5.80), all varying by bookmaker. That is a strong position, and Toney’s recall does not move that number much — he is a depth pick, not a difference in England’s ceiling. Where I would tread carefully is any market tying value directly to Toney: top-scorer prices for a fourth-choice striker are a trap, and “Toney to score anytime” lines are only worth a look in the specific games where Tuchel is likely to rest Kane, which you cannot know in advance. The honest read is that he is a squad story, not a betting edge.
On the broader England markets, the value conversation is really about the opener. Croatia were 2018 runners-up and took third in 2022, and with Luka Modrić still pulling strings they are a far stiffer first test than the “England should win comfortably” narrative suggests. I would want a generous price before backing a big England handicap on matchday one. For UK viewers, World Cup rights have typically been shared between the BBC and ITV; confirm the broadcaster for each specific fixture closer to kick-off rather than assuming. And the usual reminder applies: odds move, nothing is guaranteed, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, step away — in the UK, support is available at BeGambleAware.org.
Ivan Toney & England World Cup 2026: FAQ
Why was Ivan Toney recalled to the England squad?
Toney earned a recall on the back of 32 goals in 32 Saudi Pro League games for Al-Ahli. Thomas Tuchel picks on output and tactical fit rather than reputation, and Toney’s proven finishing, hold-up play and penalty reliability made him the ideal like-for-like deputy to Harry Kane.
Will Ivan Toney start for England at the World Cup?
Almost certainly not ahead of Harry Kane, who is the guaranteed starter when fit. Toney is best understood as an impact substitute and emergency option — the man Tuchel turns to if England need a focal point late on, want to rest Kane, or lose the captain to injury in a knockout tie.
Can Ivan Toney really back up Harry Kane?
Yes. Toney’s profile is so similar to Kane’s — physical No.9, aerial threat, penalty taker — that England barely change shape when he comes on. That like-for-like fit is exactly why Tuchel valued him over more glamorous attacking names.
Who did Toney keep out of the England World Cup squad?
His selection came in a ruthless squad that left out Cole Palmer, Phil Foden, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Harry Maguire, among others. Tuchel prioritised proven finishing and form over reputation, which is the same logic that earned Toney his place.
What is the score prediction for England v Croatia?
There is no official prediction and any forecast is an estimate only. England are favourites, but Croatia were 2018 runners-up and 2022 third-place finishers with Modrić still influential, so a cagey, tight game is very plausible. Treat “comfortable England win” talk with caution and want a generous price before backing any big England handicap.
What UK time does England v Croatia kick off?
England open Group L against Croatia on Wednesday 17 June 2026 at 21:00 UK time (BST). It is the standout opening-night fixture for England fans watching at home.
How should I bet the Ivan Toney markets at the World Cup?
Cautiously. As a fourth-choice striker, top-scorer prices on Toney are a trap, and “anytime scorer” lines only make sense in games where Kane is likely rested — which you cannot reliably predict. He is a squad story, not a betting edge. Odds are decimal and vary by bookmaker; only stake what you can afford to lose, and find support at BeGambleAware.org.
Could England go out in the group stage?
It is unlikely given their quality, but never impossible at a 48-team World Cup where the top two plus the best third-placed teams advance from each group. Croatia are a serious side and Ghana and Panama will both sit deep, so England will need to break down stubborn opponents rather than coast through Group L.
Call it a shock if you like, but Ivan Toney’s recall is the most logical pick in a squad built on logic. He will not start ahead of Kane, he will not win a Golden Boot, and he may not play many minutes — but if the moment comes when England need a goal, a penalty or a No.9 who can lead the line under pressure, he is exactly the man Tuchel wants standing in the centre circle. That is what tournament football is really about, and it is why I think this call ages a lot better than the outrage suggests.
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