France enter the 2026 World Cup as joint-favourites alongside Spain. With Kylian Mbappé resolved his issues with Real Madrid and PSG winning their first Champions League, the stars appear to be aligning for a French World Cup triumph. But can they deliver when it matters most?
France’s Group I: Path to the Knockouts
| Team | Threat Level | Key Player |
|---|---|---|
| 🇫🇷 France | Clear favourite | Mbappé |
| 🇸🇳 Senegal | High (recent semi-finalists) | Mané, Gueye |
| 🇳🇴 Norway | Medium (Haaland) | Haaland |
| 🇮🇶 Iraq | Low | — |
Mbappé’s Return to Form: The Ancelotti Saga Resolved
The Mbappé-Ancelotti fallout threatened to cast a shadow over France’s World Cup campaign. Booed at the Bernabeu, dropped from Real Madrid’s starting XI — the narrative was damaging. However, Real Madrid’s Champions League victory has reset the atmosphere, and Mbappé arrives at the World Cup in peak psychological condition.
More importantly, PSG’s Champions League triumph under Luis Enrique means Dembélé arrives in excellent form and spirits. The French dressing room, notoriously fractured in 2010 and 2014, appears genuinely united under Deschamps for what is expected to be his final tournament.
Camavinga’s Absence: The Major Blow
Eduardo Camavinga’s injury was France’s biggest selection blow. His box-to-box energy and press-resistance was irreplaceable in Deschamps’ preferred midfield structure. Mateta and Risser were surprise inclusions — selections that prioritised physicality over craft.
With Griezmann dropping deeper and Tchouaméni anchoring, France’s midfield can still function at the highest level. But against Spain or Argentina in the later rounds, the loss of Camavinga could prove decisive.
France 2026 Odds & England’s View
France are priced around 4.00-4.50 to win the tournament — the same as Spain. From an English perspective, France represent the biggest threat to England in the knockouts. A potential England-France semi-final or final would be the most anticipated match in European football history since 1966.
Mbappé to score in every round (an outright specials market) around ~12.00 is a bold but not unreasonable bet. His 2022 World Cup included goals in the final, semi-finals and group stage.
Further Reading
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